SAM ALLARDYCE'S knack of turning round the tanker of relegation-threatened teams might well have reached its end.
As relegation six-pointers go, there are few bigger than Sunderland versus Aston Villa - and even Allardyce has admitted that there are "no favourites" between the two worst sides in the Premier League.
In the red and white corner at the Stadium of Light today are the Black Cats, who have lost five matches in a row, with their December form described by manager Allardyce as "****". They are second from bottom, with 12 points from 19 games.
And in the claret and blue corner are a Villa side whose only league win came on the opening day of the season and who are an alarming 11 points adrift of safety and bottom of the pile with eight points. Yes, eight.
"I don't know if any team is the favourite in a bottom-of-the-table clash," said Allardyce, who has major defensive problems ahead of the game. "It's all about holding your nerve though I suppose as we're the home side, we should be favourites."
Villa have won on their last three visits to Wearside including a 4-0 thrashing last term which cost Gus Poyet his job. That was arguably the lowest point of a year of disappointments for Sunderland.
But for Allardyce, his worst moment came last month when his players choked at home to Watford and lost to a fourth-minute goal. He has now warned them to have any chance of survival this season, they cannot afford a repeat.
"It's the biggest game of the season but the last time we faced our biggest game of the season, we failed miserably," he said. "Watford are a very good side but I felt we were capable of winning that game and our performance could have won it after conceding so early but we didn't take our chances.
"This one is even bigger and that's why we must hold our nerve. Villa have had a couple more days to get ready for this but we've got to be ready physically and mentally to get out there and make sure we're the team that comes away with three points."
The Sunderland boss is hoping that, by the time his side are next in Premier League action at Swansea on Wednesday week, they will be bolstered by new recruits.
Lorient centre-half Lamine Kone is close to agreeing a £5million deal, while Allardyce is also closing in on QPR defender Steven Caulker and Jan Kirchoff from Bayern Munich.
Allardyce believes 38 points will be required to stay up this season - the same total they have managed in their past two campaigns when they went into the closing weeks with the trapdoor beckoning.
"All the top boys are slipping up so the points will go somewhere else," said Allardyce. "Whether that lies in the middle of the table or the bottom we'll have to wait and see.
"By the end of February or the beginning of March, we'll have a better idea but at this stage I think we'll need 38.
"Can we do it? I wouldn't be here if I didn't think that. I might as well pack my bags now."
Sebastian Coates limped out of Wednesday night's 1-0 home defeat by Liverpool suffering from a dead leg and is a doubt for this match, while John O'Shea is battling a calf problem.
Younes Kaboul is out with a hamstring tear and Allardyce will need to assess 36-year-old Wes Brown's ability to play two games in four days after his return to action in midweek.
Midfielder Jack Rodwell will sit out after suffering a hamstring injury during the Liverpool game and he joins Sebastian Larsson (knee) on the sidelines.
Problem you most certainly do not need when you are seven points from safety.
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